How 3 tech titans make decisions
All decisions are bets
In Summer 2006, my family and I attended the Trowbridge Pump Music Festival. Over the long weekend, we camped in the grounds of a beautiful farm by a river. The weather was warm and the music entertaining. We were having fun. One evening, our kids, along with many others, were playing in the river, near a disused mill. While chatting with my wife on the bank, I got the sense that something was wrong. Acting largely on instinct, I waded into the river, fully clothed. It became apparent that a child was under the water and struggling. I was able to get to and pull the child to safety. The child turned out to be my six year old. We were shaken and immensely relieved after our near miss.
One or two way doors (Bezos)
One common pitfall for large organisations, one that hurts speed and inventiveness, is one-size-fits-all decision making. - Jeff Bezos
Jeff Bezos categorises decisions as either One Way Door or Two Way Door decisions.
Some decisions are so consequential or hard to reverse that they are termed One Way Door decisions. If we go through the door, it would be impossible or very difficult to come back. These decisions should be considered slowly and carefully by senior management. One such decision that Amazon made was the standard height of their warehouses. While perhaps not the most exciting decision, it would have been very costly to reverse it.
In contrast, most decisions are Two Way Door decisions. We pick a door then walk through. If it turns out to be the wrong decision then we can go back and try another one. Two Way Door decisions should be made quickly by individuals or small teams.
Jeff Bezos believes that decisions based on compromises are poor decisions. Comprises are made for social rather than business reasons.
First principles thinking (Musk)
I think it’s important to reason from first principles rather than by analogy. The normal way we conduct our lives is we reason by analogy. With analogy we are doing this because it’s like something else that was done, or it is like what other people are doing. With first principles you boil things down to the most fundamental truths and then reason up from there. - Elon Musk
Elon Musk makes decisions based on first principles thinking. This is a scientific or physics way of looking at the world. It takes a lot more mental energy relative to reasoning by analogy. When Elon has a choice to make between two options, all else being equal, he will tend to choose the simpler, faster, more agile of the two.
Connecting the dots (Jobs)
You can't connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backward. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. - Steve Jobs
Steve Jobs was a perfectionist; details mattered. Artistically inclined, he highly valued intangibles, such as aesthetics and design. Steve said, Microsoft has no taste. They don’t think of original ideas or bring much culture into their products.
When it came to decision making, gut feeling, vision and life dreams were guiding principles. Decisions had to align with the big picture. When Steve came back to Apple in 1997, he radically streamlined the product range. Those that did not form part of his coherent whole were killed.
Other resources
Thinking In Bets talk by Annie Duke
Balancing Explore v Exploit Data Tradeoffs post by Phil Martin
When to Stop Searching and Choose post by Phil Martin
Entering a Wiltshire farm river in Summer 2006 was the most important decision I ever made.
Have fun.
Phil…
